Single Copy:              USD 500.00

Multi Copy License: USD 1,250.00

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Australia provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Australian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Australia include: Telstra Corporation Limited, SingTel Optus Pty Limited, and Vodafone Hutchison Australia Pty Ltd (Vodafone Group Plc and Hutchison Telecoms (Australia) Limited before 1Q.2009). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Strong subscriber growth at Telstra and Optus in the latest quarter

+9.0% industry-average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPUs are increasing in the Australian wireless market 

+2.7% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing

The industry average MOU/Sub growth of +6.3% in 2Q.2009

EBITDA growth remains strong in Australia's mobile operator space

Industry average EBITDA growth was +9.1% in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Australia to reach 31.2 million in 2013

• We forecast that total mobile subscribers in Australia will increase from 23.6 million in 2008 to 31.2 million in 2013.

• Telstra will continue to be the largest operator in the country with 12.8 million subscribers in 2013.

• Our model predicts that Vodafone Hutchison Australia will have 9.42 million subscribers and Optus will have 9.02 million subscribers by the end of 2013.

Merger between Vodafone and Hutchison in 1Q.2009 resulted in changes in competitive dynamics

• We expect that Telstra's subscriber market share will remain in the range of 41% - 42% over the next five years.

• On the other hand, we expect that Optus's market share will decline as that of Vodafone Hutchison Australia increases over the next several years. We forecast that Optus's market share will fall from 31.7% to 28.9% and Vodafone Hutchison Australia's market share will increase from 26.4% to 30.2% over the forecast period, 2009 - 2013.

ARPUs will be stable over the next five years

• Although ARPU levels are declining in most countries around the world, that is not the case with Australia. Our model forecasts that the industry average monthly ARPU level will increase slightly from AUD 49.95 in 2008 to AUD 50.80 in 2013.

• Vodafone Hutchison Australia's ARPU level is higher than Telstra and Optus. We expect that monthly ARPUs at Vodafone Hutchison Australia, Telstra, and Optus will be approximately AUD 53.70, AUD 51.45, and AUD 46.92 respectively in 2013.

Industry average EBITDA margin to improve from 2009 to 2013

• Our model predicts that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA / reported revenue) will rise from 29.1% in 2008 to 31.6% in 2013.

• However, we expect that the largest operator, Telstra, will see its EBITDA margin fall from 36.5% in 2008 to 30.0% in 2013 as its EBITDA grows more slowly than its revenue over the next several years.

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast

Telstra Corporation Limited

SingTel Optus Pty Limited 

Vodafone Hutchison Australia Pty Ltd

(Vodafone Group Plc and Hutchison Telecoms Australia Limited until 1Q.2009)

Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011

PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS                         

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)                   

SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR                   

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)                   

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR

DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR

VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)

MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE

SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE

YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *

SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *

CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *

(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *

EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) *

* Available only for SingTel Optus Pty Limited and Hutchison Telecoms (Australia) Limited