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IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Greece provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Greece’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011. Operators covered for Greece include: Vodafone-Panafon Hellenic Telecommunications Company S.A., Wind Hellas Telecommunications S.A., and Cosmote Mobile Telecommunications S.A. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Double-digit subscriber growth continues in Greece's mobile operator space

+19.6% industry-average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009

ARPU level is declining significantly in Greece

Industry average ARPU growth of -23.8% in 1Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing at Cosmote

+2.0% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 1Q.2009

EBITDA growth was negative across operators in the latest quarter

-18.8% industry-average EBITDA growth in 1Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscriber accounts in Greece to reach 20.1 million in 2013

• We forecast that the number of wireless subscribers in Greece will increase from 18.9 million in 2008 to 20.1 million in 2013. This means that, on average, each person owns about two cell phones.

• Cosmote will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Greece. Our model predicts that Cosmote's number of subscribers will change from 7.89 million accounts in 2008 to 8.41 million accounts in 2013.

• We also forecast that, by the end of 2013, Vodafone-Panafon will have 6.31 million subscribers while Wind Hellas will have 5.40 million subscribers.

Vodafone-Panafon's subscriber market share to increase over the next five years

• Our model predicts that Vodafone-Panafon's subscriber market share will increase from 30.6% to 31.4% while Wind Hellas's market share decreases from 27.5% to 26.9% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

• We expect that Cosmote's market share will remain in the range of 41% - 43% over the next several years.

ARPU levels in Greece will be falling from 2008 to 2013

• We forecast that the industry-average ARPU level will fall from € 20.39 in 2008 to €17.28 in 2013.

• We expect that Cosmote's monthly ARPU level will decline from €22.00 to €17.31, and Vodafone-Panafon's monthly ARPU will decline from €21.31 to €18.43 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

• We think that Wind Hellas will continue to receive the lowest level of ARPU in Greece. Given the latest quarter numbers, our model predicts that Wind Hellas's monthly ARPU will fall from €18.70 in 2008 to €15.88 in 2013.

Cosmote will continue to enjoy higher EBITDA margins than Vodafone-Panafon and Wind Hellas over the next several years

• We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline from 38.4% in 2008 to 37.5% in 2013.

• Cosmote will continue to enjoy the highest EBITDA margin among operators at 43.9% in 2013 compared to 27.9% for Vodafone-Panafon and 42.2% for Wind Hellas. 

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast

Cosmote Mobile Telecommunications S.A. 

Vodafone-Panafon Hellenic Telecommunications Company S.A.

Wind Hellas Telecommunications S.A.

Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: Mar 2003 - Mar 2011

PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS                         

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)                   

SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR                    

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)                   

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR

DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR

VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)

MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE

SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE

YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)