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IEMR’s Global Handset Connections by Technology Forecast provides a comprehensive forecast of global, regional, and country-specific connections of mobile devices by various technologies. For each country, region, and globally, we provide historical (2007 and 2008) data and forecasts (2009 - 2013) for the following series: Total connections (000s) and connections for various technology families, including: GSM family (2G GSM, WCDMA, HSPA, LTE), TD-SCDMA, cdmaOne, CDMA2000 1XRTT, CDMA 1XEV-DO, Mobile WIMAX, and other (TDMA, PDC, iDEN, analogue).

For each of the above series, this forecast will provide data on 57 countries and regions and is one of the most comprehensive forecasts of technology connections in the industry.

Why you should buy this report:

By purchasing this report, you will receive an Excel file with 57 datasheets: 6 regional forecasts, 50 country forecasts, and a global forecast. In each datasheet, we cover total connections, connections by technology (2G GSM, WCDMA, HSPA, LTE, cdmaOne, CDMA2000 1XRTT, CDMA 1XEV-DO, TD-SCDMA, Mobile WIMAX) and growth rates of connections by technology (2G GSM, WCDMA, HSPA, LTE, cdmaOne, CDMA2000 1XRTT, CDMA 1XEV-DO, TD-SCDMA, Mobile WIMAX). This report provides answers to all of the following questions:

·         What are the key trends in the global handset market? How will this market grow over the next five years?

·         Which region/country is experiencing the fastest growth in handset connections in the world? What are the key trends in each region/country?

·         Which handset technology is most prevalent in each region/country: 2G GSM, WCDMA, HSPA, LTE, cdmaOne, CDMA2000 1XRTT, CDMA 1XEV-DO, TD-SCDMA, or Mobile WIMAX? How will this change over the next five years?

This report will be useful to:

·         Strategists and analysts at handset manufacturers and mobile phone operators responsible for strategy development and business analytics

·         Device manufacturers in all areas of the telecommunications market that need strategy recommendations on key trends in the global handset industry

·         Financial analysts and portfolio managers covering firms in the handset industry

·         Consultants advising their clients on handset markets

·         Researchers who need to gain a better understanding of the global handset industry

Table of Contents

Number of Pages in this Publication: 66

Regions Covered in this Global Handset Forecast

Global

North America

South and Central America

Western Europe

Eastern Europe

Asia-Pacific

Middle East and Africa

Countries Covered in this Global Handset Forecast

Algeria

Argentina

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Brazil

Canada

Chile

China

Colombia

Czech Republic

Denmark

Egypt

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hong Kong

Hungary

India

Indonesia

Ireland

Israel

Italy

Japan

Malaysia

Mexico

Morocco

Netherlands

New Zealand

Nigeria

Norway

Peru

Philippines

Poland

Portugal

Russia

Singapore

South Africa

South Korea

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

Taiwan

Thailand

Turkey

Ukraine

United Kingdom

United States

Venezuela

Series Covered for each Country and Region, 2007 - 2013E (available for each region and each country)

Total connections (000s)

Connections by Technology (000s)

Total GSM family

  of which 2G GSM

  of which WCDMA

  of which HSPA

  of which LTE

Total CDMA family

  of which cdmaOne

  of which CDMA2000 1XRTT

  of which CDMA 1XEV-DO

TD-SCDMA

Mobile WIMAX

Other

Growth Rates, %

Totals

  Total connections (000s)

Connections by Technology (000s)

Total GSM family

  of which 2G GSM

  of which WCDMA

  of which HSPA

  of which LTE

Total CDMA family

  of which cdmaOne

  of which CDMA2000 1XRTT

  of which CDMA 1XEV-DO

TD-SCDMA

Mobile WIMAX

Other

Executive Summary

5.9 billion total connections forecasted globally for 2013

Based on announced operator-level data, we are forecasting global subscriber growth at a CAGR of 6.8% (previously 7.5%) between 2009 and 2013. Total mobile connections will go from 4.092 billion in 2008 to 5.890 billion in 2013.

GSM connections will reach 4.76 billion in 2013 with the biggest growth happening with HSPA connections

We are forecasting total GSM connections of 4.76 billion in 2013 for a CAGR of 5.1% (previously 6.1%).

2G GSM connections will decrease at CAGR of -3.7% to reach 2.837 billion connections in 2013 from the current 3.2 billion connections.

The biggest growth in the GSM family will occur in HSPA. HSPA connections will increase at a CAGR of 61% from the current 85.3 million connections to reach 1.5 billion connections in 2013.

LTE connections to reach 43.4 million in 2013

Given that the standards on LTE are still evolving and the current economic climate, our view is that operators will continue to run trials and not make any full deployments on LTE until their 3G investments enter some level of maturity, generating free cash flow for carriers. Based on our interviews with key vendors and carriers that have announced LTE plans and past deployment data for HSPA and WCDMA, we think that the path to full deployment of LTE will be long. By 2013, we are now projecting 43.4 million connections will be activated on LTE (our previous forecast was 37 million connections). 

Global CDMA connections to grow faster than GSM connections

Our model continues to show that CDMA-family connections will grow faster than GSM connections. We are forecasting total CDMA connections of  791.9 million in 2013 for a CAGR of 7.7%.

We think that the economics of CDMA 1xEV-DO is quite compelling with operators in both developed and developing markets opting for this lower-cost deployment option. We are forecasting that CDMA 1xEV-DO connections will increase globally at CAGR of 16% to reach 327 million connections by 2013.

Mobile WiMax to reach 47.4 million connections in 2013

Recent news from vendors and carriers on mobile WiMax has been encouraging. Based on the latest deployments and our interviews with vendors and operators, we are forecasting that Mobile WiMax connections will reach 47.4 million in 2013 (previously our estimate was 42.5 million in 2013).

North America

In North America, total handset connections will increase to 389.6 million in 2013

We are forecasting subscriber growth at a CAGR of 6.0% between 2009 and 2013 in North America. Total mobile connections will go from 292.5 million in 2008 to 389.6 million in 2013.

GSM connections in North America will reach 191.2 million in 2013 with the biggest growth happening with HSPA connections

We are forecasting total GSM connections of 191.2 million in 2013 for a CAGR of 12.1%.

2G GSM connections will decrease at CAGR of -17.1% to reach 43.3 million connections in 2013 from the current 104.9 million connections.

The biggest growth in the GSM family will occur in HSPA. HSPA connections will increase at a CAGR of 55.2% from the current 12.2 million connections to reach 110.1 million connections in 2013.

LTE connections in North America to reach 8.8 million in 2013

By 2013, we are projecting 8.8 million connections will be activated on LTE. Given positive interviews with both operators and vendors, this forecast is higher than our previous forecast of 8.1 million LTE connections by 2013. 

CDMA connections in North America to grow over the next several years

Although their growth will be slower than that of GSM connections, CDMA connections will increase from 2009 to 2013. We are forecasting total CDMA connections of 189 million in 2013 for a CAGR of 1.5%.

Within CDMA-family connections, CDMA 1xEV-DO will show the strongest growth at CAGR of 7.6%. We forecast that CDMA 1xEV-DO connections will reach 120.9 million by 2013.

Mobile WiMax to reach 8.8 million connections in 2013

Based on current deployments and our interviews with vendors and operators, we are now forecasting that Mobile WiMax connections will reach 8.8 million in 2013. This would be neck and neck with LTE connections, although we expect LTE connections to have a higher growth profile than mobile WiMax.

South and Central America

The number of handset connections to reach 615.3 million in 2013 in South and Central America

We are forecasting subscriber growth at a CAGR of 6.3% between 2009 and 2013 in South and Central America. Total mobile connections will go from 437.2 million in 2008 to 615.3 million in 2013.

GSM connections will reach 561.4 million in 2013 with the biggest growth happening with HSPA connections

We are forecasting total GSM connections of 561.4 million in 2013 for a CAGR of 7.8%.

2G GSM connections will remain flat at a CAGR of 0.7% to reach 407.2 million connections in 2013 from the current 351.9 million connections.

The biggest growth in the GSM family will occur in HSPA. HSPA connections will increase at a CAGR of 80.5% from the current 3.3 million connections to reach 76.2 million connections in 2013.

2.4 million LTE connections in South and Central America in 2013

By 2013, we are projecting 2.4 million connections will be activated on LTE in South and Central America. 

GSM connections to grow while CDMA connections decrease from 2009 to 2013

Our model shows that GSM-family connections will continue to grow in South and Central America. We are forecasting total GSM-family connections of 561.4 million in 2013 for a CAGR of 7.8%.

On the other hand, CDMA-family connections will decline over the next several years. We are forecasting total CDMA connections of 49.4 million in 2013 for a CAGR of -4.0%.

Mobile WiMax to reach 3.9 million connections in 2013

Based on current deployments and our interviews with vendors and operators, we are forecasting that Mobile WiMax connections will reach 3.9 million in 2013 for a CAGR of 82.4%.

Western Europe

Total handset connections in Western Europe to reach 565 million in 2013

We are forecasting subscriber growth at a CAGR of 2.2% between 2009 and 2013. Total mobile connections in the region will increase from 504.6 million in 2008 to 565 million in 2013.

GSM connections will reach 559.9 million in 2013 with the biggest growth happening with HSPA connections

We are forecasting total GSM connections of 559.9 million in 2013 for a CAGR of 2.0%.

2G GSM connections will decline significantly at CAGR of -41.1% to reach 31.3 million connections in 2013 from the current 349.3 million connections.

The biggest growth in the GSM family will occur in HSPA. HSPA connections will increase at a CAGR of 50.5% from the current 23.4 million connections to reach 426.1 million connections in 2013.

LTE connections to reach 10.1 million in 2013

By 2013, we are projecting 10.1 million connections will be activated on LTE. 

Mobile WiMax to reach 5 million connections in 2013

Based on current deployments and our interviews with vendors and operators, we are forecasting that Mobile WiMax connections will reach 5.05 million in 2013 for a CAGR of 90.7%.

Eastern Europe

Total handset connections to reach 447.5 million in 2013 in Eastern Europe

We are forecasting subscriber growth at a CAGR of 2.4% between 2009 and 2013 in Eastern Europe (previously 2.2%). Total mobile connections will rise from 386.7 million in 2008 to 441.2 million in 2013.

GSM connections will reach 441.2 million in 2013 with the biggest growth happening with HSPA connections

We are forecasting total GSM connections of 441.2 million in 2013 for a CAGR of 2.2%.

2G GSM connections will decrease at CAGR of -8.5% to reach 262.1 million connections in 2013 from the current 374.9 million connections.

The biggest growth in the GSM family will occur in HSPA. HSPA connections will increase at a CAGR of 83.1% from the current 4.4 million connections to reach 151.8 million connections in 2013.

LTE connections in Eastern Europe to reach 1.4 million in 2013

By 2013, we are projecting 1.37 million connections will be activated on LTE (marginally lower than our previous forecast) 

CDMA connections to grow faster than GSM connections

Although CDMA will continue to make up a very small proportion of total handset connections in Eastern Europe compared to GSM, our model shows that CDMA-family connections will grow faster than GSM connections over the next several years. We are forecasting total CDMA connections (mostly CDMA 1xEV-DO connections) of 4.6 million in 2013 for a CAGR of 9.5%.

Mobile WiMax to reach 1.71 million connections in 2013

Based on current deployments and our interviews with vendors and operators, we are now forecasting that Mobile WiMax connections will reach 1.17 million in 2013 for a CAGR of 83.9%. This is slightly higher than our previous forecast.

Asia-Pacific

Total handset connections in Asia-Pacific to reach 2.96 billion in 2013

We are forecasting subscriber growth at a CAGR of 8.0% between 2009 and 2013. Total mobile connections will rise from 1.89 billion in 2008 to 2.96 billion in 2013.

GSM connections will reach 2.1 billion in 2013 with the biggest growth happening with HSPA connections

We are forecasting total GSM connections of 2.11 billion in 2013 for a CAGR of 3.9%.

2G GSM connections will decrease at CAGR of -1.1% to reach 1.5 billion connections in 2013 from the current 1.45 billion connections.

The biggest growth in the GSM family will occur in HSPA. HSPA connections will increase at a CAGR of 59.3% from the current 31.2 million connections to reach 502.5 million connections in 2013.

LTE connections in the Asia-Pacific region to reach 20.4 million in 2013

By 2013, we are projecting 20.4 million connections will be activated on LTE in the Asia-Pacific Region. 

Mobile WiMax to reach 25.9 million connections in 2013

Based on current deployments and our interviews with vendors and operators, we are forecasting that Mobile WiMax connections in Asia-Pacific will reach 25.9 million in 2013 for a CAGR of 96.0%.

Middle East and Africa

Total handset connections in Middle East and Africa to reach 916.3 million in 2013

We are forecasting subscriber growth at a CAGR of 9.0% between 2009 and 2013, making the Middle East and Africa the fastest growing region in terms of mobile handset connections. Total mobile connections will increase from 570.2 million in 2008 to 916.3 million in 2013.

GSM connections will reach 890.9 million in 2013 with the biggest growth happening with HSPA connections

We are forecasting total GSM connections of 890.9 million in 2013 for a CAGR of 9.0%.

2G GSM connections will decrease at CAGR of -0.6% to reach 567.9 million connections in 2013 from the current 527.6 million connections.

The biggest growth in the GSM family will occur in HSPA. HSPA connections will increase at a CAGR of 78.7% from the current 10.7 million connections to reach 237.4 million connections in 2013.

LTE connections in Middle East to reach 312,000 in 2013

By 2013, we are projecting 312,000 connections will be activated on LTE in this region.

Mobile WiMax to reach 1.98 million connections in 2013

Based on current deployments and our interviews with vendors and operators, we are forecasting that Mobile WiMax connections will reach 1.98 million in 2013 for a CAGR of 98.1% (this is slightly higher than our previous forecast).