Single Copy:              USD 250.00                                      

Multi Copy License: USD 625.00

IEMR’s Belgium Consumer and Enterprise Subscriber Forecasts provides five-year annual forecasts of internet subscriber metrics going out to 2013. We report both consumer and enterprise subscriber numbers for each of the following categories: dial-up, DSL, cable, FTTx, and other access technologies.

Our consumer and enterprise internet subscriber forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country or a particular region.

Table of Contents

Number of Pages in this Publication: 6

Results and Forecasts for 2008 - 2013E

Subscribers (000s)

The report covers internet subscriber numbers by the following categories

Total data access

Total dial-Up

Consumer dial-up

Enterprise dial-up

Total broadband

Total DSL

Total cable

Total FTTx

Total Other access Technologies

Total consumer broadband

Consumer DSL

  0 - 2 Mbps

  2 - 10 Mbps

  10+ Mbps

Consumer cable

Consumer FTTx

Consumer Other access technologies

Total enterprise broadband

Enterprise DSL

Enterprise cable

Enterprise FTTx

Enterprise Other access technologies

Executive Summary of the Global Consumer and Enterprise Subscriber Forecasts

There will be 535.6 million internet subscribers globally in 2009

Strong growth in the consumer broadband segment which will see a global subscriber base of 342.4 million subscribers by the end of 2009. FTTx access lines saw an increase of 34% in 2008 and we expect that FTTx access lines will grow at a CAGR of 35% over the next five years.

Dial-up Connections

Globally, dial-up connections saw a -8.5% decline in subscribers in 2008. There are now at 134.8 million dial-up subscribers globally and we are now forecasting a -6.1% CAGR growth rate for dial-up connections over the 2009 – 2013 period. This growth rate is higher than our previous forecast as we think that the recent global recession will cause consumers to shift to broadband connections more slowly than previously forecasted.

Broadband Connections

Consumer broadband connections increased by 16.7% in 2008 to reach 317.9 million connections in 2008.

 Consumer DSL connections increased to 195.2 million or a growth rate of 16.7% in 2008.

 Consumer Cable internet connections increased to 78.3 million or a growth rate of 9.3% in 2008.

 Consumer FTTx access increased to 12.9 million or a growth rate of 34.0% in 2008.

We are now forecasting that global consumer broadband connections will increase at a CAGR of 17.7% over 2009 – 2013 (previously, our forecast was for a 12% CAGR), with 656.4 million consumer broadband connections in 2013 globally.

Enterprise broadband connections increased by 12.1% in 2008 to 65.7 million connections in 2008.

 Enterprise DSL connections increased to 45.2 million or a growth rate of 14.6% in 2008.

 Enterprise Cable internet modem connections increased to 3.6 million or a growth rate of 7.3% in 2008.

 Enterprise FTTx connections increased to 7.7 million in 2008 or a growth rate of 15%.

We are forecasting that enterprise broadband connections will increase at a CAGR of 6.5% over 2009 – 2013, with 89.7 million broadband connections in 2013 at the enterprise level. This is lower than our previous forecast of a 6.1% growth in enterprise broadband connections, again primarily due to the global economic slowdown.

North America

Total internet subscribers in North America will surpass 100 million in 2010.

Strong growth in the consumer broadband segment (+12.4%) which now has 69.6 million subscribers with FTTH (fibre-to-the-home), FTTB+LAN (fibre-to-the-building+LAN) and FWA (fixed-wireless-access) showing a robust 42.0% increase in subscribers. We are now forecasting consumer FTTx access to grow at a CAGR of 50.3% over the 2009 - 2013 period.

Dial-up Connections

In North America, dial-up connections saw a -35% decline in subscribers in 2008 with consumer dial-up connections declining by -52% in 2008. There are now 14.7 million dial-up subscribers in North America and we are forecasting a -9.7% CAGR growth rate for dial-up connections over the 2009 – 2012 period.

Broadband Connections

In North America, broadband connections saw a +11.3% increase in subscribers.

Consumer broadband connections in the region increased by 12.2% in 2008 to 69.6 million connections in 2008.

 Consumer DSL connections increased to 25.6 million or a growth rate of 13.4% in 2008.

 Consumer Cable internet connections increased to 40.9 million million or a growth rate of 9.9% in 2008.

 FTTx access increased to 884,000 connections or a growth rate of 42.0% in 2008.

 Other access technologies (FWA, satellite, etc.) increased to 2.2 million connections in 2008.

We are forecasting that consumer broadband connections in North America will increase at a CAGR of 13.3% over 2009 – 2013, with 120.4 million broadband connections in 2013 at the consumer level.

Enterprise broadband connections in North America increased by 4.9% in 2008 to 12.1 million connections in 2008.

 Enterprise DSL connections increased to 7.1 million or a growth rate of 7.9% in 2008.

 Enterprise Cable modem connections increased to 2.3 million or a growth rate of 6.0% in 2008.

 On the other hand, other enterprise access connections-- Ethernet services, leased-lines services, FTTx, satellite access and wireless services-- decreased to 2.7 million connections or a growth rate of -3.8% in 2008.

We are forecasting that enterprise broadband connections in North America will increase at a CAGR of 2.0% (previously 2.2%) over 2009 – 2013, with 13.4 million broadband connections in 2013 at the enterprise level.

South and Central America

In South and Central America, there are expecting 49.8 million internet subscribers in 2009

We observe strong growth in the enterprise broadband segment in South and Central America (+22.0% in 2008). At the same time, consumer broadband subscribers also grew rapidly (+17.8% in 2008) with FTTx access showing a particularly robust 48% increase in subscribers.

Dial-up Connections

In South and Central America, we think that dial-up connections saw their peak in 2008, growing at +5.6% in 2008. There are now 21.2 million dial-up subscribers in the region. However, we continue to forecast a decline in dial-up connections in the region at a CAGR of -5.3% (previously -6.4%) growth rate for dial-up connections over the 2009 – 2013 period.

Broadband Connections

In South and Central America, broadband connections saw a 18.4% increase in subscribers in 2008.

Consumer broadband connections increased by 17.8% in 2008 to 22.3 million connections in 2008.

 Consumer DSL connections increased to 14.7 million or a growth rate of 17.3% in 2008.

 Consumer Cable modem connections increased to 7.2 million or a growth rate of 16.5% in 2008.

We are forecasting that consumer broadband connections in Latin America will increase at a CAGR of 19.7% (previously 17.3% over 2009 – 2012), with 52.4 million broadband connections in 2013 at the consumer level.

Western Europe

In Western Europe, there are now 115.7 million internet subscribers and the internet subscriber growth was a robust 9.4% in 2008

Strong growth in the consumer broadband segment (+16.4%) which now has 82.7 million subscribers with FTTH (fibre-to-the-home), FTTB+LAN (fibre-to-the-building+LAN) and FWA (fixed-wireless-access) showing a robust 35% increase in subscribers.

Dial-up Connections

In Western Europe, dial-up connections saw a -17.5% decline in subscribers with consumer dial-up connections declining by -40% in 2008. There are now 16.5 million dial-up subscribers in the region and we are forecasting a -9.8% CAGR growth rate for dial-up connections over the 2009 – 2012 period.

Broadband Connections

In Western Europe, broadband connections saw a 15.1% increase in subscribers in 2008.

Consumer broadband connections increased by 16.4% in 2008 to 79.6 million connections in 2008.

 Consumer DSL connections increased to 63.9 million or a growth rate of 17.5% in 2008.

 Consumer Cable internet connections increased to 14.4 million or a growth rate of 6.0% in 2008.

 Consumer FTTx access increased to 791,000 connections or a growth rate of 35.0% in 2008.

We are forecasting that consumer broadband connections will increase at a CAGR of 14.1% in Western Europe (previously 8.3% CAGR) with 140.2 million broadband connections in 2013 at the consumer level.

Enterprise broadband connections in Western Europe increased by 8.7% in 2008 to 18.1 million connections in 2008.

 Enterprise DSL connections increased to 14.6 million or a growth rate of 9.7% in 2008.

 Enterprise Cable internet connections increased to 0.71 million or a growth rate of 7.0% in 2008.

 Other enterprise access connections-- Ethernet services, leased-lines services, FTTx, satellite access and wireless services-- increased to 2.8 million connections or a growth rate of 4.2% in 2008

We are forecasting that enterprise broadband connections in Western Europe will increase at a CAGR of 2.4% over 2009 – 2013, with 20.4 million broadband connections in 2013 at the enterprise level.

Eastern Europe

In Eastern Europe, there are now 32.9 million internet subscribers and the internet subscriber growth was a robust 10.7% in 2008

Dial-up Connections

Dial-up connections in Eastern Europe saw a +2.6% growth in subscribers with consumer dial-up connections increasing by 2.0% and enterprise dial-up connections increasing by 5.0% in 2008. There are now 18.3 million dial-up subscribers in Eastern Europe. However, we are forecasting a -4.9% CAGR over the forecast period (previously -5.8% CAGR).

Broadband Connections

In Eastern Europe, total broadband connections saw a 23.7% increase in subscribers in 2008.

Consumer broadband connections increased by 24.2% in 2008 to 11.5 million connections in 2008.

We are forecasting that consumer broadband connections will increase at a CAGR of 32.4% over 2009 – 2013, with 42.8 million broadband connections in 2013 at the consumer level. Our previous forecast was for a CAGR of 25.2%.

Enterprise broadband connections increased by 20.3% in 2008 to 1.5 million connections in 2008.

 Enterprise DSL connections increased to 1.2 million or a growth rate of 22.1% in 2008.

 Enterprise Cable connections increased to approximately 40,000 or a growth rate of 20% in 2008.

 Other enterprise access connections-- Ethernet services, leased-lines services, FTTx, satellite access and wireless services-- increased to 270,000 connections or a growth rate of 12.2% in 2008

We are forecasting that enterprise broadband connections in Eastern Europe will increase at a CAGR of 9.6% over 2009 – 2012, with 2.5 million broadband connections in 2012 at the enterprise level.

Asia-Pacific

In the Asia-Pacific region, there are now 183.2 million internet subscribers. The internet subscriber growth in the region was a robust 10.2% in 2008

Strong growth in the consumer broadband segment (+15.1) which now has 115.5 million subscribers with FTTH (fibre-to-the-home), FTTB+LAN (fibre-to-the-building+LAN) and FWA (fixed-wireless-access) showing a robust 40.1% increase in subscribers.

Dial-up Connections

Dial-up connections in the Asia-Pacific region saw a -3.3% decline in subscribers with consumer dial-up connections declining by -2.5% in 2008. There are now 42.9 million dial-up subscribers in the region and we are forecasting a -6.5% CAGR growth rate for dial-up connections over the 2009 – 2013 period. Previously, our forecast was for a -3.5% decline in dial-up subscribers.

Broadband Connections

In Asia-Pacific, broadband connections saw a 14.3% increase in subscribers in 2008.

Consumer broadband connections increased by 15.2% in 2008 to 115.5 million connections in 2008.

 Consumer DSL connections increased to 67.2 million or a growth rate of 2.1% in 2008.

 Consumer Cable modem connections increased to 11.6 million or a growth rate of 2.5% in 2008.

 Consumer FTTx connections increased to 10.6 million or a robust growth rate of +30%.

We are forecasting that consumer broadband connections in Asia-Pacific will increase at a CAGR of 20.4% over 2009 – 2013, with 264.8 million broadband connections in 2013 at the consumer level.

Enterprise broadband connections increased by 6.2% in 2008 to 24.8 million connections in 2008.

 Enterprise DSL connections increased to 15.4 million or a growth rate of 5.9% in 2008.

 Enterprise Cable modem connections increased to 273,000 or a growth rate of 2.5% in 2008.

 Other enterprise access connections-- Ethernet services, leased-lines services, FTTx, satellite access and wireless services-- increased to 9 million connections or a growth rate of 7.2% in 2008.

We are forecasting that enterprise broadband connections in Asia-Pacific will increase at a CAGR of 9.4% over 2009 – 2012, with 38.5 million broadband connections in 2013 at the enterprise level.

Middle East & Africa

In Middle East & Africa, there are now 45.5 million internet subscribers and the internet subscriber growth was a robust 12.1% in 2008

Strong growth in the consumer broadband segment (+19.7% in 2008) which now has 19.12 million subscribers with FTTH (fibre-to-the-home), FTTB+LAN (fibre-to-the-building+LAN) and FWA (fixed-wireless-access) showing a robust 35.3% increase in subscribers.

Dial-up Connections

Dial-up connections in Middle East and Africa saw a +5.3% growth in subscribers with consumer dial-up connections increasing by 5.3% in 2008. There are now 21 million dial-up subscribers in the region. However, we are forecasting a -2.6% CAGR negative growth rate for dial-up connections over the 2009 – 2013 period.

Broadband Connections

In Middle East and Africa, broadband connections saw a 19.2% increase in subscribers in 2008.

Consumer broadband connections in the region increased by 19.8% in 2008 to 24.5 million connections in 2008.

 Consumer DSL connections increased to 17 million or a growth rate of 20.2% in 2008.

 Consumer Cable internet connections increased to 2.1 million or a growth rate of 8.5% in 2008.

We are forecasting that consumer broadband connections in Middle East and Africa will increase at a CAGR of 14.0% over 2009 – 2013, with 35.8 million broadband connections in 2013 at the consumer level.