Single Copy:  USD 500.00
Multi Copy License: USD 1,250.00

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Greece provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for Greece’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide six-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2013. Operators covered for Greece include: Vodafone Panafon, Wind Hellas, and Cosmote. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Double-digit subscriber growth continues in Greece's mobile operator space
+14.8% industry-average subscriber growth in 4Q.2008

ARPU growth improved but it is still in negative territory
Industry average ARPU growth of -8.6% in 4Q.2008

Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing
+1.3% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 4Q.2008

Negative EBITDA growth for Vodafone in 4Q.2008
+0.5 % industry-average EBITDA growth in 4Q 2008

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscriber accounts in Greece to reach 19.58 million in 2013

~ We forecast that the number of wireless subscribers in Greece will increase from 18.64 million in 2008 to 19.58 million in 2013. This means that, on average, each person owns about two cell phones.
~ Cosmote will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Greece. Our model predicts that Cosmote's number of subscribers will change from 7.69 million accounts in 2008 to 8.02 million accounts in 2013.
~ We also forecast that, by the end of 2013, Vodafone will have 6.22 million subscribers while Wind Hellas will have 5.34 million subscribers.

Vodafone's subscriber market share to increase over the next five years

~ Our model predicts that Vodafone's subscriber market share will increase from 30.9% to 31.7% while Wind Hellas's market share decreases slightly from 27.9% to 27.3% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
~ We expect that Cosmote's market share will remain stable at approximately 41% over the next several years.

ARPU levels in Greece will be falling from 2008 to 2013

~ We forecast that the industry-average ARPU level will fall from € 22.04 in 2008 to €15.99 in 2013.
~ Cosmote will continue to receive the highest ARPU in the country, but its ARPU level will decline from €24.50 in 2008 to €18.38 in 2013.
~ Our model forecasts that, if the current pace of price reduction continues, Wind Hellas's ARPU level will fall from €19.03 in 2008 to €12.17 in 2013.

EBITDA margins will deteriorate over the 2008-2013 period

~ We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline from 38.1% in 2008 to 25.1% in 2013.
~ Cosmote will continue to enjoy the highest EBITDA margin among operators at 48.2% in 2013 compared to 26.7% for Vodafone Panafon and 17.9% for Wind Hellas.

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Vodafone Panafon
Wind Hellas
Cosmote

Charts 1-68 Results & Forecasts for: CY 2001-CY 2013
Chart 1: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS    
Chart 2: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)   
Chart 3: SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR   
Chart 4: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)   
Chart 5: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 6: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 7: MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR
Chart 8: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 9: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 10: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 11: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 12: POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 13: PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 14: POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 15: POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 16: PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 17: PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 18: GROSS ADDITIONS BY OPERATOR
Chart 19: GROSS ADDITIONS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 20: MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 21: MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 22: DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
Chart 23: MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 24: DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 25: MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 26: VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 27: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
Chart 28: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 29: MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
Chart 30: MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 31: AGGREGATE MOU BY OPERATOR
Chart 32: AGGREGATE MOU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 33: SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 34: HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
Chart 35: SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 36: SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 37: SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 38: SHARE OF GROSS ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 39: SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 40: HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
Chart 41: YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
Chart 42: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 43: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 44: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 45: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 46: SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 47: EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 48: EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 49: EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 50: EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 51: CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 52: CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 53: (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 54: EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
Chart 55: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 56: ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 57: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 58: VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 59: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 60: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 61: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 62: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 63: ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 64: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 65: VOICE REVENUE/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 66: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 67: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 68: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (EUR)

Charts 69-136 Quarterly Results for: Mar 2003 - Dec 2013
Chart 69: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS   
Chart 70: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)   
Chart 71: SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR   
Chart 72: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)   
Chart 73: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR   
Chart 74: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR   
Chart 75: MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR   
Chart 76: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR   
Chart 77: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)   
Chart 78: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 79: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR 
Chart 80: POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR  
Chart 81: PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR 
Chart 82: POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR   
Chart 83: POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)   
Chart 84: PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 85: PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 86: GROSS ADDITIONS BY OPERATOR
Chart 87: GROSS ADDITIONS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 88: MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 89: MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 90: DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
Chart 91: MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 92: DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 93: MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 94: VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 95: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
Chart 96: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 97: MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
Chart 98: MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 99: AGGREGATE MOU BY OPERATOR
Chart 100: AGGREGATE MOU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 101: SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 102: HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
Chart 103: SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 104: SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 105: SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 106: SHARE OF GROSS ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 107: SHARE SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 108: HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
Chart 109: YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
Chart 110: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 111: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 112: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 113: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 114: SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 115: EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 116: EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 117: EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 118: EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 119: CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 120: CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 121: (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 122: EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
Chart 123: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 124: ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 125: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 126: VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 127: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 128: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 129: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 130: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 131: ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 132: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 133: VOICE REVENUE/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 134: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 135: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 136: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (EUR)
  
 
IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecasts are accessed by clients that include:

Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan, Nokia, KPMG, Accenture, Ericsson, Vodafone, Sony-Ericsson, StarHub, The Monitor Group, Meteor Mobile Communications Ltd., Sunrise Communications AG, Samsung, Google, Total Choice Communications, TA Associates, Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP, Turkcell, Blackhill Partners LLC, Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP, Telus Mobility, Deloitte, Hutchison Telecommunications, Huawei, Bain & Company, Comverse Inc., Standard Chartered Bank PLC, Australian Communications and Media Authority, Ztar Mobile, DiGi.com, The Hay Group, HTCC Group, Pannon GSM Távközlési, and many others!