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IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on the United States provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the US wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 3Q2011. Operators covered for the United States include: Verizon Wireless (Joint venture of Verizon Communications Inc. and Vodafone Group Plc.), AT&T Mobility LLC, Sprint Nextel Corporation, and T-Mobile USA, Inc. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Subscriber growth is slowing down in the US wireless market

+4.9% industry average subscriber growth in 3Q.2009

ARPU growth continues to be negative

-1.9% industry average ARPU growth in 3Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber are stabilizing

The industry average MOU/Sub growth (YoY) of +0.8% in 3Q.2009

Positive EBITDA growth at Verizon Wireless and AT&T Mobility continues

+8.3% industry-average EBITDA growth in 3Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in the United States to reach 365.7 million in 2014

• We forecast that total wireless subscribers in USA will increase from 285.9 million in 2009 to 365.7 million in 2014.

• Verizon Wireless will continue to be the largest mobile operator in the country. Our model predicts that Verizon Wireless's subscriber base will increase to 133.6 million in 2014.

• On the other hand, we forecast that AT&T Mobility will have 120.8 million subscribers and T-Mobile will have 36.1 million subscribers in 2014.

In spite of rapid growth of smaller operators, Verizon Wireless and AT&T Mobility will see their subscriber market shares increase over the next five years

• Our forecasting model predicts that Verizon Wireless's market share will increase from 31.9% to 36.5% and AT&T Mobility's market share will increase from 29.5% to 33.0% over the forecast period, 2009 - 2014.

• In contrast, we expect that Sprint-Nextel's subscriber market share will continue to decline dramatically over the next five years to reach 7.4% in 2014.

Industry average ARPU level in the United States will remain stable over the forecast period, 2009 - 2014

• We expect that the industry-average monthly ARPU level will remain in the range of $50 - $51 over the next five years.

• Our model forecasts that monthly ARPU levels will be $50.55 at Verizon Wireless and $50.64 at AT&T Mobility in 2014.

Verizon Wireless will continue to enjoy the highest level of profitability in the US wireless market

• Our model predicts that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will be declining from 32.6% in 2009 to 31.4% in 2014.

• On the other hand, we forecast that Verizon Wireless's EBITDA margin will improve from 39.6% in 2009 to 40.6% in 2014.

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast

Verizon Wireless (Joint venture of Verizon Communications Inc. and Vodafone Group Plc.)

AT&T Mobility LLC

Sprint Nextel Corporation

T-Mobile USA, Inc.

Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - September 2011

PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS                         

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)                   

SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR                   

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)                   

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR

DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR

VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)

MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE

SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE

YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)