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IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on South Korea provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the South Korean wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 3Q2011. Operators covered for South Korea include: SK Telecom Co., Ltd., Korea Telecom Freetel (KTF), and LG Telecom Ltd. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Stable wireless subscriber growth continues in South Korea

+5.3% industry average subscriber growth in 3Q.2009

Negative ARPU growth continues

-3.0% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 3Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber decreasing slightly

-1.9% industry-wide average MOU/Sub growth in 3Q.2009

Strong EBITDA growth at KTF in the latest quarter

Industry average EBITDA growth was 13.5% in 3Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in South Korea to reach 55.8 million in 2014

• We forecast that the number of total mobile subscribers in South Korea will increase from 47.5 million in 2009 to 55.8 million in 2014.

• All operators will see their number of subscribers increase over the next five years.

• We expect that SK Telecom will continue to be the largest operator in the country with 28.4 million subscribers in 2014.

• Our model predicts that KTF will have 17.2 million subscribers and LG Telecom will have 10.2 million subscribers by the end of 2014.

Market shares of SK Telecom, KTF, and LG Telecom will remain stable over the next several years

• We forecast that SK Telecom will continue to lead South Korea in market shares. We expect that SK Telecom's subscriber market share will increase slightly from 50.1% in 2009 to 50.9% in 2014.

• On the other hand, subscriber market shares at KTF and LG Telecom will be 30.8% and 18.3% in 2014, according to our model.

ARPUs have stopped declining in South Korea's wireless market

• Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU in South Korea will remain in the range of 39,300 won - 39,900 won from 2009 to 2013.

• We expect that SK Telecom will continue to enjoy the highest level of ARPU in South Korea with monthly ARPU of 42,654 won in 2014.

• We forecast that monthly ARPU levels at KTF and LG Telecom will be 35,924 won and 38,453 won respectively in 2014.

SK Telecom will continue to enjoy higher level of profitability than KTF and LG Telecom

• We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline from 27.3% in 2009 to 24.4% in 2014.

• SK Telecom will continue to enjoy the highest level of profitability in South Korea's mobile operator space. We forecast that EBITDA margins at SK Telecom, KTF, and LG Telecom will be approximately 33.0%, 22.3%, and 11.0% respectively in 2014.

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast

SK Telecom Co., Ltd.

Korea Telecom Freetel (KTF)

LG Telecom Ltd.

Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - September 2011

PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS                         

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)                   

SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR                   

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)                   

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR

DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR

VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)

MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE

SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE

YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)