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IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on the Netherlands provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Dutch wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 3Q2011. Operators covered for the Netherlands include: KPN Mobile N.V., Vodafone Group Plc, and Ben (T-Mobile International AG). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Subscriber growth is gradually slowing down in the Dutch wireless market

+6.1% industry-average subscriber growth in 3Q.2009

ARPUs declined across operators in the latest quarter

-4.9% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 3Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber are decreasing

The industry average MOU/Sub growth of -3.1% in 3Q.2009

Positive EBITDA growth across operators in the latest quarter

+13.8% industry average EBITDA growth in 3Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscriber accounts in the Netherlands to reach 22.6 million in 2014

• We forecast that total wireless subscribers in the Netherlands will increase from 20.6 million in 2009 to 22.6 million in 2014.

• KPN Mobile will continue to be the largest mobile operator in the Netherlands and we forecast that its subscriber base will increase from 10.5 million in 2009 to 11.9 million in 2014.

• According to our model, Vodafone's subscribers will also increase from 4.57 million in 2009 to 5.17 million in 2014 while Ben (T-Mobile)'s subscriber base remains at around 5.47 million over the next five years.

KPN Mobile's subscriber market share will be increasing over the next five years

• KPN Mobile will continue to lead the Netherlands in market shares. Our model predicts that its share of total subscribers will increase from 51.3% in 2009 to 52.9% in 2014.

• Also, we expect that Vodafone's market share will increase from 22.2% to 22.9% while Ben (T-Mobile)'s market share declines from 26.6% to 24.2% over the forecast period, 2009 - 2014.

Vodafone will continue to receive the highest ARPU level in the country

• Our forecasting model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU level in the Netherlands will decrease from €27.12 in 2009 to €25.68 in 2014.

• Vodafone will continue to receive the highest ARPU level in the country, and we expect that its monthly ARPU will be approximately €34 in 2014.

• We expect that ARPU levels at KPN Mobile and Ben (T-Mobile) will be much lower than Vodafone's, declining to €23.55 and €22.68 respectively by the end of 2014.

KPN Mobile will continue to enjoy higher profitability than Ben (T-Mobile) and Vodafone over the next several years

• We expect that KPN Mobile will continue to enjoy higher profitability than Ben (T-Mobile) and Vodafone over the next five years.

• Our model forecasts that the EBITDA margins (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) at KPN Mobile, Vodafone, and Ben (T-Mobile) will be 40.3%, 33.3%, and 21.0% respectively in 2014.

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast

KPN Mobile N.V.

Vodafone Group Plc

Ben (T-Mobile International AG)

Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - September 2011

PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS                         

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)                   

SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR                   

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)                   

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR

DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR

VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)

MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE

SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE

YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *

SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *

CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *

(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *

EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) *

* Not available for KPN Mobile N.V.