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IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Italy provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Italian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 3Q2011. Operators covered for Italy include: Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM), Vodafone Group Plc, Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA, and Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Negative subscriber growth continues at Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM) and Vodafone

-2.7% industry average subscriber growth in 3Q.2009

ARPU growth continues to be in negative territory for Wind and Hutchison

-2.6% industry average ARPU growth in 3Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing

+7.1% operator-wide average MOU growth in 3Q.2009

Positive EBITDA growth at Vodafone and Wind in the latest quarter

+1.9% industry average EBITDA growth in 3Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Italy to reach 92.8 million in 2014

• Given the latest quarter numbers, our model forecasts that total wireless subscriber accounts in Italy will increase from 88.9 million in 2009 to 92.8 million in 2014.

• We think that, although TIM will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Italy, its subscriber base will not expand significantly over the next several years. Our model predicts that TIM will continue to have about 31.9 million subscribers from 2010 to 2014.

• On the other hand, we expect that Vodafone's subscriber base will increase from 30.3 million in 2009 to 31.8 million in 2014. We forecast that Wind and Hutchison will also see their number of subscribers increase to 19.3 million and 9.7 million respectively in 2014.

TIM's subscriber market share will be declining over the next five years

• Our model predicts that TIM’s subscriber market share will decline from 35.9% in 2009 to 34.4% in 2014.

• We expect that Vodafone's market share will remain stable at approximately 34% over the next several years.

• On the other hand, we forecast that Wind's market share will increase from 19.8% to 20.8%, and Hutchison's share will rise from 10.1% to 10.4% over the forecast period, 2009 - 2014.

ARPU levels to stabilize at TIM, Vodafone, and Wind from 2010 to 2014

• We forecast that the average monthly ARPU in Italy will remain at approximately €20 over the next five years.

• Our model predicts that monthly ARPUs at TIM, Vodafone and Wind will be €21.10, €22.36 and €17.58, respectively in 2014.

• On the other hand, we expect that Hutchison's ARPU will continue to decline to reach €14.43 in 2014.

EBITDA margins will be stable over the next five years

• We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will remain in the range of 43% - 44% over the forecast period, 2009 - 2014.

• We think that Vodafone will continue to enjoy a higher level of profitability than TIM and Wind over the next five years. Our model predicts that EBITDA margins at TIM, Vodafone, and Wind will be 44.9%, 49.7%, and 43.9% respectively in 2014.

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast

Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM)

Vodafone Group Plc

Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA

Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited

Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - September 2011

PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS                         

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)                   

SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR                   

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)                   

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR

DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR

VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR **

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **

MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) **

MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) **

SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE

SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE

YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) **

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) ***

SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **

EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **

EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **

EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **

CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***

CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***

(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *

EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR **

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) **

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) **

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) ***

* Available only for Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM) and Vodafone Group Plc

** Available only for Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM), Vodafone Group Plc, and Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA

*** Available only for Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM), Vodafone Group Plc, and Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited