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IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Germany provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the German wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 3Q2011. Operators covered for Germany include: T-Mobile International AG, D2 (Vodafone Group Plc), E-Plus Mobilfunk GmbH & Co. KG, and Telefónica O2 Germany GmbH & Co OHG. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Subscriber growth in Germany is slowing down

+2.1% industry average subscriber growth in 3Q.2009

ARPU growth continues to be negative across operators

-7.1% industry average ARPU growth in 3Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber remain stable in Germany

Industry average MOU/Sub was 104 minutes per month in 3Q.2009

EBITDA growth turned positive at T-Mobile in the latest quarter

+3.0% operator-wide average EBITDA growth in 3Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Germany to reach 120.3 million in 2014

• According to our forecasting model, total wireless subscriber accounts in Germany will increase from 109.5 million in 2009 to 120.3 million in 2014.

• T-Mobile will continue to be the largest wireless operator in the country over the next five years; we expect that it will have approximately 44.2 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2014.

• D2 (Vodafone) will continue to be the second largest operator in the country. However, given the latest quarter numbers, our model predicts that its subscriber base will be declining from 35.8 million in 2009 to 34.1 million in 2014.

T-Mobile's subscriber market share will increase over the next several years

• Our model predicts that T-Mobile will see its subscriber market share increase from 36.1% in 2009 to 36.8% in 2014.

• E-Plus’s market share will also increase from 17.1% to 19.8% while that of Telefónica O2 will increase from 14.1% to 15.1% over the forecast period, 2009 – 2014.

• In contrast, we expect that D2 (Vodafone)'s share of subscribers will decline to about 28.3% by the end of 2014.

ARPU levels will be decreasing from 2010 to 2014

• We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU level will decrease from €15.07 in 2009 to €11.98 in 2014.

• We are forecasting that T-Mobile's monthly ARPU will decline from €14.89 in 2009 to €12.78 in 2014.

• Telefónica O2, which currently receives the highest ARPU in the country, will also see its ARPU level decline over the next several years. We expect that Telefónica O2's monthly ARPU will be €12.94 in 2014.

EBITDA margins to remain stable in the German mobile operator space over the next five years

• We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA / reported revenue) will be approximately 40% over the next five years.

• D2 will continue to have higher EBITDA margins than the other operators. Our model predicts that EBITDA margins at T-Mobile, D2, E-plus, and Telefónica O2 will be 38.4%, 47.2%, 41.0%, and 33.9% respectively in 2014.

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast

T-Mobile International AG

D2 (Vodafone Group Plc)

E-Plus Mobilfunk GmbH & Co. KG

Telefónica O2 Germany GmbH & Co OHG

Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - September 2011

PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS                         

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)                   

SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR                   

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)                   

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR

DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR

VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)

MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE

SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE

YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)