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IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on France provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the French wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 3Q2011. Operators covered for France include: Orange (France Telecom S.A.), SFR (Vodafone Group Plc), Bouygues Telecom, Orange's MVNOs, and SFR's MVNOs. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Subscriber growth at Bouygues Telecom is increasing

+5.4% industry-average subscriber growth in 3Q.2009

ARPU level is stabilizing in France

+3.1% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 3Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber stabilizing at about 250 minutes per month

+0.4% industry average MOU/Sub growth (YoY) in 3Q.2009

Negative EBITDA growth at SFR (Vodafone) and Bouygues Telecom in the latest quarter

Industry average EBITDA growth was -0.6% in 3Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

* Please note that our time-series model does not take into account new operators that have not yet entered the market such as Iliad SA. When the data becomes available, we will update our forecasts accordingly. 

Total wireless subscriber accounts in France to rise to 71.1 million in 2014

• We forecast that total mobile subscribers in France will increase from 59.7 million in 2009 to 71.1 million in 2014.

• Orange (France Telecom) will continue to be the largest operator. We expect that its subscriber base will increase from 25.7 million in 2009 to 29.0 million in 2014.

• Our forecasting model also predicts that numbers of subscribers at SFR and Bouygues Telecom will be 23.4 million and 11.4 million respectively in 2014.

MVNOs of Orange and SFR will be taking higher shares of total subscribers over the next several years

• Our model predicts that Orange's subscriber market share will decrease from 43.0% to 40.8% while the market share of its MVNO increases from 3.9% to 7.0% over the forecast period, 2009 - 2014.

• Also, although SFR's market share will decline from 34.1% in 2009 to 32.9% in 2014, SFR's MVNOs will see their combined market share increase from 2.1% in 2009 to 3.3% in 2014, according to our model.

• We expect that Bouygues Telecom's market share will remain in the range of 16% - 17% over the next five years.

ARPU levels will be stable in France's mobile operator space from 2010 to 2014

• Although ARPU levels continue to decline in many wireless markets around the world, we expect that ARPUs in France will remain stable over the next several years.

• Our model forecasts that Orange's monthly ARPU will decrease slightly from €33.30 in 2009 to €32.60 in 2014 while monthly ARPU at SFR (Vodafone) declines from €34.99 in 2009 to €32.84 in 2014.

• Bouygues Telecom's ARPU level continues to be higher than the other operators’ ARPU levels. We forecast that Bouygues Telecom’s monthly ARPU will be approximately €41.50 from 2010 to 2014.

EBITDA margins will decline slightly in the French mobile operator space

• We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will remain in the range of 35% - 36% over the next five years.

• Orange will continue to enjoy higher EBITDA margins than its competitors. Our model forecasts that EBITDA margins at Orange, SFR, and Bouygues Telecom will be approximately 39.1%, 36.7%, and 27.0% in 2014.

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast

Orange (France Telecom S.A.)

SFR (Vodafone Group Plc)

Bouygues Telecom

Orange’s MVNOs (Only the subscriber data is available for MVNOs) 

SFR’s MVNOs (Only the subscriber data is available for MVNOs) 

Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - September 2011

PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS                         

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)                   

SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR                   

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)                   

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR

DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR

VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)

MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE

SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE

YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)