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IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on China provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Chinese wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 3Q2011. Operators covered for China include: China Mobile Ltd., China Unicom Ltd., and China Telecom Corporation Limited. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Double-digit subscriber growth continues in China's mobile operator space

+15.4% industry-average subscriber growth in 3Q.2009

ARPU levels in China continue declining

-3.7% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 3Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber increase in China's mobile operator space

+3.6% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 3Q.2009

Positive EBITDA growth at China Mobile and China Unicom in the latest quarter

+4.2% industry average EBITDA growth in 3Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

The number of mobile subscribers in China will exceed 1 billion in 2014

• We forecast that total mobile subscribers in China will increase from 706.7 million in 2009 to 1 billion in 2014.

• Our model predicts that the largest operator, China Mobile, will have 686.2 million subscribers in 2014. China Unicom will have 188.1 million and China Telecom will have 105.5 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2014, according to our model.

China Telecom's subscriber market share will be increasing over the next five years

• We expect that China Telecom's subscriber market share will increase from 7.0% in 2009 to 10.5% in 2014.

• On the other hand, China Unicom, which sold part of its operations to China Telecom in 2008, will see its subscriber market share fall from 20.5% in 2009 to 18.7% in 2014.

• We forecast that China Mobile will maintain its high market share in the Chinese wireless market over the next five years. We expect that its share of total subscribers will be 68.1% in 2014.

ARPU levels are stabilizing at China Unicom and China Telecom

• We expect that China Mobile will see its monthly ARPU decrease from RMB 76.49 in 2009 to RMB 65.68 in 2014.

• On the other hand, we forecast that ARPUs at China Unicom and China Telecom will be stable at approximately RMB 41 and RMB 64 over the forecast period, 2009 - 2014.

China Mobile will continue to enjoy higher EBITDA margin than China Unicom

• According to our forecasting model, China Mobile's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase from 51.1% in 2009 to 57.9% in 2014.

• China Unicom's EBITDA margin will remain lower. Our model predicts that China Unicom's EBITDA margin will be 29.8% in 2014.

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast

China Mobile Ltd.

China Unicom Ltd.

China Telecom Corporation Limited

Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - September 2011

PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS                         

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)                   

SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR                   

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)                   

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR

DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR

VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)

MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE

SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE

YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *

SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *

EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *

EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *

EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *

CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *

CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *

(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *

EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR *

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) *

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) *

* Available only for China Mobile Ltd. and China Unicom Ltd.